With the U.S. yield curve not far from inversion, global GDP growth slowing, and earnings estimates continuing to decline, it seems the risks to stocks are on the downside from current levels. Progress on trade issues could give a boost to P/E multiples, although that would likely be short-lived if earnings estimates continue to fall.
In fixed income markets, a scenario where long yields move materially higher would likely involve a significant acceleration in economic growth and / or a shift to tightening by the Fed, with neither of these scenarios seeming likely any time soon.
In summary, the equity and fixed income markets are likely to be range-bound, with further data on the direction of the U.S. and global economies likely to move markets above and below current levels, although without a strong trend in either direction unless the data prove to be surprisingly weak or surprisingly strong.
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Strategic Outlook …p. 2
Equity Outlook …p. 6
Fixed Income Outlook …p. 9
Alternatives/Commodities Outlook … p. 12
Tactical Asset Allocation…p. 14
Market and Global Sector Performance…p. 15
Key Economic Indicators…p. 17